carpe decorum

Two of the Horsemen are Loose

The War Continues and the Post-Mortems Begin

• The postwar predictions start. Could a faltering dollar and global rebellion against its values presage the decline, and eventual fall, of the American empire, asks Mark Tran
• More to the point, what should be the measures of success for this war? Thomas Friedman outlines six: (1) have we occupied Bagdad? (2) have we removed Saddam Hussein? (3) can we explain the fierce resistance among some forces? (4) have we won the war and kept Iraq intact? (5) has a genuine Iraqi nationalist to lead emerged? and (6) is the new regime accepted as legitimate in the Arab world?

I liked it because Friedman was caught in the same surreal experience last week as I: surrounded by airport televisions alternatively broadcasting war and NCAA basketball. More importantly, whether his list is comprehensive, it gets at the heart of the matter: winning the peace. Without that penultimate goal, the efforts and sufferings of many will be wasted. Worse, without a long view, we are just setting ourselves up (and others of course) for more bloodshed down the road. I'd like to say I have every confidence in a good outcome. But until this administration spills a lot more detail about its plans for the future, it has to be judged by what we know, which is darned little. Too, the administration's blatant use of the war for wholly partisan purposes — the tax cut debate comes to mind — undermines (my) confidence in its judgment and motives.

More on Pneumonia

• SARS has caused 34 deaths out of 800 people stricken with the infection in China and 11 deaths in Hong Kong which reports 319 infections, according to Reuters. Singapore has quarantined over 800 people.
• The WHO's press briefing yesterday announced that both a paramyxo and corona virus have been identified as possible pathogens. (Coronaviruses cause about a third of common colds). Dr Klaus Stohr:

  What we are seeing actually are three hypotheses. The first hypothesis is that one of the viruses, for instance the corona virus, causes the disease, and that might be a new corona virus. The second hypothesis is that the paramyxo viruses cause the disease and if that was the case, it’s certainly also a new paramyxo virus. The third hypothesis is, very obvious, is that these two pathogens have to come together to cause this very severe outbreak. One of the viruses, for instance the corona virus, is known to live in immune cells, cells which are important for the defence, for the body defence against infection. So what one could hypothesize is that this corona virus destroys or at least diminishes the immunity in the patient so that the second virus has practically an open door to go in and to sicken the patient beyond what this virus would be able to do normally.

• The WHO is issuing advice on travel and as yet is not suggesting restrictions. At the briefing, Dr. David Heymann notes:

  We’ve done epidemiological studies which, to date, and that means to this very minute, have shown us that most if not all cases can be identified in a chain of transmission from the patient back somehow to a family member or to a contact directly with a hospital worker or with a hotel in Hong Kong.

• And finally, the mortality figure for this disease is 4%. Which is pretty worrisome for an unknown disease.

Posted at March 26, 2003 11:20 AM